
NFL - 10/12/26
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By @WagerWire
NFL Week 5 is here, and the Jets vs. Bears matchup is one of the more interesting reads on the board. Chicago's defense has been the talk of the league, holding the Eagles to seven points and the Jets to just 12 in back-to-back weeks. The Bears look like a defensive juggernaut on paper, but sharp bettors know better than to buy the narrative without checking the receipts.
Here's the thing about those defensive performances: both the Eagles and Jets combined for just four red zone trips across two full games, and neither offense converted a touchdown. That's not elite defense, that's opponent self-destruction. Andy Dalton threw a pick in the end zone, and the Jets' offense is, well, the Jets' offense. Week 5 brings the Packers to town, and Green Bay is a different animal than either of those units. Jordan Love posted a 51.5% dropback success rate in Week 4 against Tampa Bay, and LaFleur's offense has faced the fifth-hardest defensive schedule through four weeks. The market may be undervaluing the Packers here.
The Packers team total sitting just below 20.5 points is the number to target. Green Bay cleared 20 points in two of three tries against Chicago last season, and this is the Bears' first road game since Week 1, when they surrendered 37 points. Regression is coming for that defense, and Love is the guy to expose it. The Packers over their team total is where the value sits, and the props market on Love's passing yards is worth a look too, given how often Chicago's opponents have been forced into checkdowns rather than chunk plays.
This is exactly the kind of spot where doing the homework pays off. The casual money is riding the Bears' defensive hype, which means the Packers are getting more respect from the line than the public. If you're ready to get some action down, BetMGM is the right book for this one - place your first bet and get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if it doesn't win, giving you serious runway to bet this slate the right way.
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