Bet On Norway vs France & Get Up To $1,500 back In Bonus Bets

Group I comes down to this. Norway and France meet in Foxborough with the group winner on the line, and the stakes could not be higher. France holds the edge on goal differential after a clinical 3-0 dismantling of Iraq, but Norway punched their knockout ticket with a wild 3-2 result against Senegal. Both teams are already through, so this is purely about first place: level on points and tied head-to-head after a draw, the group would come down to overall goal difference, where France's edge means a draw is enough to send them top — Norway have to win outright. This is exactly the kind of high-pressure World Cup matchup where the total market gets mispriced by the public.

Let's break down why the over is the right side here. Norway's defensive metrics against Senegal were genuinely alarming - Senegal generated 1.7 xG and three big chances against a Norwegian backline that was supposed to be organized. Now they face the tournament's most dangerous attack, and right back Julian Ryerson is a doubt after limping off against Senegal, with Marcus Pedersen the likely replacement. That means Dembele and Barcola could be targeting a patched-up right side all night. Per Opta, France have won each of their last five World Cup matches against European opposition, and their attacking ceiling in this spot is sky-high. France will be led on the day by assistant Guy Stéphan, with manager Didier Deschamps away from the squad following the death of his mother.

Here's the sharp angle: Norway cannot sit back and absorb pressure. They need a result, which means Erling Haaland is going to be active and Odegaard is going to be pulling strings in the final third. That attacking commitment opens the counter for France on a loop. The combined xG from Norway's last two matches points directly at a game that goes over 2.5 goals. BetMGM had the Over 2.5 priced around -145 heading into the match (odds move — check the live price), reasonable juice for a spot this clean. Anytime scorer props on Haaland and Mbappe deserve a look, and the first-half over has value if Norway comes out aggressive early.

This is one of the best matchups of the group stage, and you want action on it before kickoff. If you haven't locked in your BetMGM account yet, new bettors can get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if your first bet doesn't win - a massive cushion for diving into a World Cup knockout preview with this much riding on it. Must be 21+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.