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The World Cup knockout stage is here, and the USMNT drew about as favorable a Round of 32 matchup as they could have hoped for. Bosnia enter this match ranked 64th in the FIFA World Rankings — the lowest-ranked side in their group — and reached the World Cup knockout stage for the first time in their history. The US is a heavy favorite for a reason: BetMGM has them around -265 on the moneyline (as of July 1), and the underlying numbers back up the price.

Here's where the real edge is. Bosnia's five group-stage goals flatter them — three came in a 3-1 win over an already-eliminated Qatar side, and they were routed 4-1 by Switzerland along the way. That kind of output doesn't tend to travel into the knockouts, especially against a US defense that kept a clean sheet in a 2-0 win over Australia and held Paraguay to a single goal in a 4-1 result. Bosnia being kept off the scoresheet is the angle that jumps out — Bosnia Under 0.5 Goals is worth a look at BetMGM (check the current line, as of July 1).

On the attacking side, the USMNT prop market is worth a close read. Folarin Balogun leads the anytime-scorer board at +120 (per BetMGM, as of July 1), with Ricardo Pepi and Christian Pulisic among the others in the mix. With the group already secured, the US had the flexibility to rotate in the 3-2 loss to Turkey, so a fresh, motivated lineup should arrive in Santa Clara. Bosnia's defense — 64th in the world and coming off a four-goal concession to Switzerland — projects to give ground early and often.

This is a spot where the chalk makes sense and the defensive props add value on top of it. Bosnia don't have the finishing quality to trouble the best defensive unit the USMNT has fielded in years. Back the US ML, stack it with Bosnia Under 0.5 Goals, and sprinkle on a Balogun anytime scorer for the SGP. Thinking about locking in the action? BetMGM is the right book for this one — new users can get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if their first bet doesn't win, one of the strongest first-bet offers available heading into knockout-stage weekend.